{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "sourceVersion": "September 2026 research-source release",
  "sample": "Structural experiment sample",
  "sampleSize": 815,
  "modelYear": 2011,
  "weighting": "Each family receives equal weight within its SEP group.",
  "estimand": "Distribution across families of model-predicted expected school value added, in normalized VA standard deviations.",
  "curveMethod": "Archived kernel density estimates; baseline bandwidth held fixed across scenarios within each SEP group.",
  "generator": "Work/Model/Revision/run_stage4_figures.m",
  "policyControlScope": "These experiment-sample figures are selected independently of population policy controls. Three treatment comparisons are archived September supplemental outputs, not current-paper figures. No distributions are inferred from population means.",
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "baseline",
      "label": "Baseline inequality",
      "title": "Baseline differences in expected school value added",
      "caption": "No intervention. The two curves compare SEP and non-SEP families; vertical lines mark group means.",
      "alt": "Baseline expected school value-added densities: SEP families have a mean of 0.19 SD and non-SEP families 0.47 SD, a gap of 0.28 SD.",
      "summary": "Baseline mean expected VA is 0.19 SD for SEP families and 0.47 SD for non-SEP families.",
      "assumptions": "No intervention · school conditions held fixed",
      "original": "assets/va/baseline.png",
      "source": {
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      "includedInCurrentManuscript": true,
      "releaseNote": "This baseline figure is also included in the October 2026 paper."
    },
    {
      "id": "demand",
      "label": "Demand response (archive)",
      "title": "Full information: demand response",
      "caption": "Solid lines show no treatment; dashed lines show full treatment with school quality and prices fixed. SEP families appear above non-SEP families. Vertical lines mark group means.",
      "alt": "Expected VA distributions shift right under full treatment. The archived figure reports a mean increase of 0.225 SD for SEP families and 0.167 SD for non-SEP families.",
      "summary": "Archived September result: The archived figure reports gains of 0.225 SD for SEP families and 0.167 SD for non-SEP families in this sample.",
      "assumptions": "100% take-up among eligible families · fixed quality and prices · no capacity constraints",
      "original": "assets/va/demand.png",
      "source": {
        "path": "Writeup/Round 3/Paper/Figures/quality_density_sep_counterfactual.png",
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        "captionPath": "Writeup/Round 3/Paper/Sections/CounterFactuals2.tex",
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      "releaseNote": "Archived September 2026 supplemental figure. Not included in the October paper or online appendix."
    },
    {
      "id": "capacity",
      "label": "Capacity constraints (archive)",
      "title": "Full information with capacity constraints",
      "caption": "Gray solid lines show no treatment; gray dashed lines show full treatment under free choice; colored solid lines add deferred acceptance with capacity constraints. SEP families appear above non-SEP families.",
      "alt": "Baseline, demand-only, and capacity-constrained expected VA distributions. With capacity constraints, the mean gain is 0.134 SD for SEP families and 0.092 SD for non-SEP families.",
      "summary": "Archived September result: With limited seats, the gains are 0.134 SD for SEP families and 0.092 SD for non-SEP families in this sample.",
      "assumptions": "100% take-up among eligible families · capacity-constrained assignment · fixed school quality",
      "original": "assets/va/capacity.pdf",
      "source": {
        "path": "Writeup/Round 3/Paper/Figures/quality_density_capacity_fig5.pdf",
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      "image": "assets/va/capacity.svg",
      "assets": [
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      "includedInCurrentManuscript": false,
      "releaseNote": "Archived September 2026 supplemental figure. Not included in the October paper or online appendix."
    },
    {
      "id": "equilibrium",
      "label": "School-quality response (archive)",
      "title": "Full information with capacity constraints and school responses",
      "caption": "Gray solid lines show no treatment; gray dashed lines show full treatment with free choice and fixed quality; colored solid lines add capacity-constrained assignment and private-school quality responses. SEP families appear above non-SEP families.",
      "alt": "Baseline, demand-only, and equilibrium expected VA distributions. With capacity constraints and school-quality responses, the mean gain is 0.257 SD for SEP families and 0.208 SD for non-SEP families.",
      "summary": "Archived September result: Allowing private-school quality to respond produces gains of 0.257 SD for SEP families and 0.208 SD for non-SEP families in this sample.",
      "assumptions": "100% take-up among eligible families · capacity constraints · private-school quality response · public-school quality fixed",
      "original": "assets/va/equilibrium.pdf",
      "source": {
        "path": "Writeup/Round 3/Paper/Figures/quality_density_supply_capacity_fig7b.pdf",
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        "captionPath": "Writeup/Round 3/Paper/Sections/EquilibriumEffects.tex",
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      "image": "assets/va/equilibrium.svg",
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      "includedInCurrentManuscript": false,
      "releaseNote": "Archived September 2026 supplemental figure. Not included in the October paper or online appendix."
    }
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  "currentResearchSourceCommit": "0803db2475ed08a49338f3208eb83fec238a50ed",
  "currentPublicationScope": "Only the baseline inequality figure is included in the October 2026 paper. The demand, capacity, and school-response figures are archived supplemental outputs, omitted from the current paper and online appendix."
}